@gmcbay thanks for using logic and reason to shoot my holes in my hair-trigger suspicions of MS. Give me a second, let me remove my tin foil hat.
I think DRM end-to-end is the key requirement, albeit there isn't a DRM on the market today that couldn't be hacked either through the analog hole or through other exploits yet to be discovered. DVD encryption, various music DRM schemes, Blueray even. The illusion of DRM "end-to-end" is a business fallacy that is costing corporate content brokers a ton of consumer ill-will and disloyalty.
All Netflix is doing is alienating paying customers of adequate intelligence that WILL figure out how to pay someone else for the services s/he wants on the devices s/he want.
And as the Studios sow all their bad karma and alienate sophisticated fans, they open up opportunities for niche content creators & brokers (podcasters, youtube TV shows, localized DIY content et cetera).
As far as the illusion of a "secure channel," I could be wrong, but I think the Roku is Linux and Netflix can be run on Ubuntu (via a VM running XP). Each of these use cases illustrates possible weak points in the DRM. By virtualizing the OS, a kind of man-in-the-middle attack could intercept decoded video whilst still in a digital format. On Roku, I could imagine some clever boy or girl packet sniffing and hacking the Roku OS to figure out how to make it work natively in Linux.
My thoughts on Android fragmentation: I'm not sure that Android is nearly as splintered as the iPhone-loving Jobs-bots want people to believe. Yes - the carriers compete with the Studios to see who can screw their customers most viciously, but there are TONS of sophisticated apps that run seamlessly on a great diversity of Android devices. And yes, premium content providers do serve copyright sensitive content to Android.
So, yes, my Dash is a *nix based platform made less open by a multinational corporation with a huge stake in controlling content of major studios. Again, controls in place are just temporary annoyances for customers that actually pay for all their content and who simply want to own our devices and our viewing experiences. So, the studio execs feel warm, fuzzy and secure but all they are really doing is pissing off paying customers while dishonest people as smart & smarter than honest customers steal the "secured" content the big boys have worked so hard to tie down.
And yeah, maybe there are some minor things to iron out on Android, but Sirius/XM (and media power houses like Howard Stern & Oprah) have found a way to
implement a player that will work across [...] Android devices [...] while maintaining a secure channel from the server to the physical framebuffer.
Netflix has some super-smart people making things happen for them - I find it hard to believe that they can't figure out what Sirius/XM has figured out. So I'm not sure who it is, but I still suspect that someone is strong-arming Netflix into not supporting Android.
I'm not sure I agree with you on all your points, but I appreciate your comments.