Topic: Sold out on release?

I am just curious if the chumby will be sold out on release...I hope not..how many will you have in stock to ship?

mmm....chumby...

Re: Sold out on release?

I guess this is a yes?...

mmm....chumby...

Re: Sold out on release?

We really can't answer that question - we know how many we're building, but we can only guess about the demand.

Because the chumby is something that is actually manufactured, there's a long pipeline for ordering parts, getting them to the factory, building the units, testing them, etc.  The parts for the currently manufactured units were ordered several months ago, based on projections we came up with at the time.

It's a tough problem - if we order too few parts, then we sell out, and if we place a new order, it take several more months to get them.  If we order too many, then we're stuck with a *lot* of cash tied up in stuff that's not selling.  Both situations can be fatal to a startup company.

Re: Sold out on release?

ohh ok, Idon't want chumby to go out of business! Ok, thanks for the reponse Duane! How many people work at chumby? just wondering

mmm....chumby...

Re: Sold out on release?

One thing to think about is that like say I get one in my room. My roommates are both like "dude that's awesome! where can I get one?" and suddenly there's a demand that wasn't necessarily there on the release. I assume that chumby doesn't have too much capital to put towards an advertising campaign so I think that the word of mouth process and general cool and technolust factors are key to the success of such an awesome product. Just by sheer guess (I'm not a statistician or basing this on cold facts) but I'm going to say the release demand will be somewhere around 2000-2500 units (again just a guess, duane could definately give you better numbers than I can). Anyways, I expect that as the release cycle progresses, a steady increase in demand will pop up, based purely on coolness, utility, and the fact that it's only $150-180 US-ish (as opposed to laying down $600 for an iPhone or $3-400 for a nokia internet tablet). So the problem is that spending too much on initial production will cause problems as you're in debt, not enough production and you're not keeping up with the demand increases which almost invariably decreases demand (yes I know I'm just repeating what was said earlier in different words) Anyways, I'm sure that the people at chumby are pretty sure in what they're doing and I really want to see them do well with such an awesome product.

Re: Sold out on release?

Thanks for all of the info Keichan! I was just making sure, because I might not have all of my money by release, I might have to wait a week or so after launch.

mmm....chumby...

Re: Sold out on release?

haha, good for you dude. Sorry about the long reply with no real content whatsoever. I was feeling economist-y there for a second ^^; Anyways I'm still just psyched that it will be released so soon (september-ish?) I can't wait to get my hands on one (but who can?). Please oh please release it soon!

Re: Sold out on release?

Oh no, It is ok that you posted a long reply. Yeah I am so excited! I am only $14.56 away! I am a big guru about packaging, I saw the packaging for the chumby, and I LOVE it, it is very unique!

mmm....chumby...

Re: Sold out on release?

I am shocked! It is a tradition, I say a tradition to sell out! This creates a sense of anxiety, and desire! Look at Cabbage Patch Kids; Furbys; and most new video game systems. Do you think news articles will be made if there is plenty of anything in stock!!! This is consumerism at its finest.

Re: Sold out on release?

What about the iPhone? That seemed to have plenty in stock on release. Anyways, the sold out thing only really works when you have a crapload of money to put towards advertising or at least a lot of anticipation hype. Given the sample size of the initial demand I don't think a shortage will cause much of a stir outside of the immediate community.

Re: Sold out on release?

keichan wrote:

What about the iPhone? That seemed to have plenty in stock on release. Anyways, the sold out thing only really works when you have a crapload of money to put towards advertising or at least a lot of anticipation hype. Given the sample size of the initial demand I don't think a shortage will cause much of a stir outside of the immediate community.

The iPhone's original hype was the fear of a shortage (caused by a public training to fear such an event)  causing people to wait on line for multiple days ; you could not watch a full news program with out a story of people taking off from work or paying college students to wait on line in order to obtain the item (only later on was it revealed that there was plenty of stock).

Look at what is happening in these message boards right now. All the people pleading and begging for a chumby; because none are available beyond the first 50 programs and the prior sample releases. If it sells out (usual from lack of parts to produce the item) there could be some splash if an article is published noting there is a waiting list. The lack of availability makes it all the more desirable.

In the history of shortages; Johnny Carson once joked of a shortage of toilet paper causing a run on the noted item. 

We will see.